Best LLMs for Claim Continuity Classification
Classifies whether a previously verified claim remains materially continuous, changes, becomes unsupported, or is superseded under a new subject snapshot and evidence bundle. Illustrative uses include tracking a reported business risk across audits, software issue across releases
Run this task on Fronset — request an invitation
Models
Frontier on this task: Claude Sonnet 5.5 at 8.69 / 10. Score needed at the Balanced step: 7.82.
point-estimate floor (CI low) · upper CI (less certain) · Bars sorted by blended cost; best-value model first. Greyed rows are MEDIUM+ models whose point estimate does not clear the bar.
| Model | Quality score | CI low | Cost / 1k runs | vs best value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Luna | 8.04 / 10 | 7.95 | $0.86 | best value |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 | 8.01 / 10 | 7.53 | $2.05 | 2.4x more expensive |
| Xiaomi MiMo V2.6 Flash | 8.14 / 10 | 7.79 | $2.75 | 3.2x more expensive |
| GPT-6 Sol | 8.36 / 10 | 8.22 | $10.98 | 13x more expensive |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 8.69 / 10 | 8.43 | $13.55 | 16x more expensive |
| Meta Muse Spark 1.3 | 8.23 / 10 | 8.12 | $23.57 | 27x more expensive |
| Moonshot Kimi K3 | 8.67 / 10 | 8.45 | $139.56 | 162x more expensive |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 8.60 / 10 | 8.36 | $183.00 | 213x more expensive |
| Qwen 3.8 Max | 6.88 / 10 | 6.60 | $127.48 | 148x more expensive |
| Qwen 3.7 Plus | 7.68 / 10 | 7.51 | $6.88 | 8x more expensive |
| NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Lightning | 4.19 / 10 | 3.90 | $1.41 | 1.6x more expensive |
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 7.76 / 10 | 7.55 | $8.65 | 10x more expensive |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite | 6.15 / 10 | 5.85 | $3.79 | 4.4x more expensive |
| Qwen 3.8 Flash | 6.17 / 10 | 5.85 | $11.69 | 14x more expensive |
| Thinking Machines Inkling Small | 6.94 / 10 | 6.66 | $19.05 | 22x more expensive |
| Thinking Machines Inkling | 7.38 / 10 | 7.14 | $110.51 | 129x more expensive |
| NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Nano 30B-A3B | 5.05 / 10 | 4.76 | $1.26 | 1.5x more expensive |
| MiniMax M3 | 7.50 / 10 | 7.28 | $7.66 | 8.9x more expensive |
| NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Super 120B | 6.56 / 10 | 6.23 | $2.16 | 2.5x more expensive |
| Tencent Hy4 Preview | 7.57 / 10 | 7.27 | $58.44 | 68x more expensive |
| Tencent Hy3 | 6.31 / 10 | 5.97 | $5.93 | 6.9x more expensive |
Cost breakdown
| Model | Quality | Confidence | Cost / 1k runs | Overpay | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Luna ★ OpenAI | 8.04 / 10 CI [7.95, 8.14] | RANKED | $0.86 | best value | batch |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 Anthropic | 8.01 / 10 CI [7.53, 8.49] | MEDIUM | $2.05 | 2.4x | batch |
| Xiaomi MiMo V2.6 Flash Xiaomi MiMo | 8.14 / 10 CI [7.79, 8.49] | MEDIUM | $2.75 | 3.2x | batch |
| GPT-6 Sol OpenAI | 8.36 / 10 CI [8.22, 8.50] | RANKED | $10.98 | 13x | batch |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 best Anthropic | 8.69 / 10 CI [8.43, 8.95] | HIGH | $13.55 | 16x | batch |
| Meta Muse Spark 1.3 OpenRouter | 8.23 / 10 CI [8.12, 8.34] | RANKED | $23.57 | 27x | batch |
| Moonshot Kimi K3 Moonshot AI | 8.67 / 10 CI [8.45, 8.89] | HIGH | $139.56 | 162x | batch |
| Claude Opus 5.5 Anthropic | 8.60 / 10 CI [8.36, 8.84] | HIGH | $183.00 | 213x | batch |
Overpay shows how much more you pay than the best-value model that meets the quality step (marked ★) — the best-value good-enough option. "16x" means you overpay 16× — 16× that reference for no quality benefit the step asks for. Typical call shape for this task: 5189 input tokens → 350 output tokens, EMA-tracked from production traffic. Cost is the observed, all-in $ per 1,000 task runs: each model's own measured usage on this task — output verbosity, thinking/reasoning tokens, cache reads and writes, and the spend on its billed failures — priced at current list rates and adjusted by the billing overhead we actually reconcile against provider invoices. Models that answer tersely cost what they actually cost; models that think at length pay for it. Not comparable to providers' advertised $/1M list rates — this is what running the task costs, not a per-token price.
Evaluation rubric
Judge continuity-label correctness, materiality calibration, evidence traceability, distinction between semantic and cosmetic change, and uncertainty handling. Penalize assumptions based on elapsed time alone.
Output schema
Every answer on this task is checked against this JSON Schema, whichever model wrote it. An answer that doesn't fit counts as a model failure, and the call is retried on another model.
{
"$defs": {
"EvidenceRefV1": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"description": "A reference to one evidence cell, as `{\"id\": ..., \"cell\": ...}`.",
"properties": {
"cell": {
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "integer"
},
{
"type": "null"
}
],
"default": null,
"title": "Cell"
},
"id": {
"title": "Id",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"id"
],
"title": "EvidenceRefV1",
"type": "object"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"instruction_relevance": {
"default": "direct",
"enum": [
"direct",
"supporting",
"incidental",
"unrelated"
],
"title": "Instruction Relevance",
"type": "string"
},
"materiality": {
"default": "medium",
"enum": [
"high",
"medium",
"low",
"none"
],
"title": "Materiality",
"type": "string"
},
"outcome": {
"enum": [
"unchanged_valid",
"valid_with_update",
"reversed",
"not_observable",
"retire"
],
"title": "Outcome",
"type": "string"
},
"rationale": {
"default": "",
"title": "Rationale",
"type": "string"
},
"target_evidence_refs": {
"items": {
"$ref": "#/$defs/EvidenceRefV1"
},
"title": "Target Evidence Refs",
"type": "array"
}
},
"required": [
"outcome"
],
"title": "ContinuityAssessmentV1",
"type": "object"
}Prompt templates
The published template for this task.
default ·
LLMB_CLAIM_CONTINUITY_CLASSIFICATION_SYSTEM +
LLMB_CLAIM_CONTINUITY_CLASSIFICATION_USER
(21588 calls in window)
System prompt
Compare the predecessor claim and verification with the new snapshot and evidence diff. Apply the supplied materiality policy exactly. Separate wording changes from substantive changes, cite the decisive evidence, and use uncertainty when the allowlisted snapshot cannot establish continuity. Cite evidence only by the reference ids listed in snapshot_allowlists.evidence_ref_ids, copied exactly; where snapshot_allowlists.evidence_ref_by_key is supplied, it gives the id for each evidence_diff entry. Never cite an evidence_diff key or a reference from the predecessor verification: an id outside the allowlist rejects the whole answer. Cite nothing when no listed id applies. Treat empty optional values as absent and return only the requested result. Your response must conform exactly to this output schema: {schema_json_string}.
User prompt
Inputs — predecessor_claim: {predecessor_claim}; predecessor_verification: {predecessor_verification}; evidence_diff: {evidence_diff}; subject_snapshot_context: {subject_snapshot_context}; snapshot_allowlists: {snapshot_allowlists}; materiality_policy: {materiality_policy}; policy_profile: {policy_profile}. Use only these inputs to complete the task defined by the system prompt.